A Theoretical Derivation of Relationships between Forecast Errors
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper describes a theoretical study of forecast errors. First, we formally define forecast errors with different rationales, derive several relationships among them, and prove a heuristic formula proposed by Mark Sower.1 Then we study the effects of a systematic bias on the forecast errors. Finally, we extend our study to the situations where correlations across product demands and time effects in demand and forecast are taken into account. Definitions and theorems are presented first, and proofs of the theorems are given at the end of the paper.
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